KYIV — The artillery in Eastern Europe shows no sign of falling silent as the 2026 horizon approaches. Market participants have established a 56% probability for the 'No' outcome, signaling a somber expectation that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will persist into 2027. Despite intermittent diplomatic overtures, the $95,000 in volume reflects a contested reality where a formal ceasefire remains a high-stakes uncertainty. For Kyiv and Moscow, the absence of a 'mutually agreed halt' suggests the war of attrition remains a fixture of the geopolitical landscape, defying those wagering on a premature peace.

"The ledger does not lie."